I’d say your 2nd hypothesis is too low and your first one too high.
Most minimalist nodders try to get at least a few thousand. Kids, grandkids, jobs, housework, illnesses, etc. all compete for time.
A middle tier tries to get at least 8,000 to 10,000
Go-getters chug along to over >10,000 to 30,000
And one to few rocket jet-setters blast off for the moon, and slingshot out of the universe.
Not official, just my opinion.